Côte d’IvoireNational Public Opinion SurveyApril 20-30, 2015International Republican Institute

Detailed Methodology The International Republican Institute carried out a survey of adult residents of Côte d’Ivoire aged 18years and older. Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 1,500 respondents between April 20-30, 2015. Data was collected by Ivorian Services of Studies and Surveys under the supervision of Rob Varsalone ofGlobal Strategic Partners. The survey is a national representative sample of adult residents of Côte d’Ivoire. The sample wasdistributed in 231 clusters in all 19 administrative regions of Côte d’Ivoire. A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified by administrativeregion and was then further stratified by urban/rural location. The probability-proportional-to-sizemethod was used to select departments, communes, sub-prefectures, and wards/towns/villages.Wards/towns/villages served as the primary sampling units (PSU) for this survey. Within each PSU,households were randomly selected through a skip pattern after a random starting point was determinedand the left hand rule employed. The Kish Grid was then used to select the appropriate individual in thehousehold for interview. Individual interviews were conducted by a team of 64 interviewers who workedunder the control of 32 supervisors. Interview teams were comprised of both males and females. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for marketand social research methodologies. The confidence interval does not take into account design effect. The sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percent at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95 percent.The response rate for the survey was 81 percent. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. This survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.2

7%47.3%No formal schoolingRural schoolingPrimary schoolSecondary 6.8%22.4%4.1%6.1%1.6%AkanKrouN. MandéS. %2.5%1.5%MuslimCatholic35.1%26.7%NoneLess than 100,000 F CFA47.5%33.9%Traditional5.3%100,001 - 200,000 F CFA7.9%Protestant22.9%200,001 - 300,000 F CFA3.7%Jewish0.3%300,001 - 400,000 F CFA1.4%BuddhistHarriste0.9%0.4%400,001 - 500,000 F CFAMore than 500,000 F CFA0.5%1.2%Christian Céleste0.4%Don't know/No response4%None8.1%Household Monthly 6-4546-6060 Location GenderAgeDemographics3

Progress in National Reconciliationbut Issues RemainInternational Republican Institute

I’m going to read you a list of issues, and for each one, please tell mewhether you feel that the situation has improved, stayed the same, orbecome worse since the post-election crisis of 2010/2011.BetterSameWorseDon't know/No responseLocal Reconciliation69%19%7% 5%National reconciliation56%Security54%17%National 5%23%Disarmament Demobilization Reintegration process38%21%Internally displaced rations for victimsCommodities 9%26%31%21%13%6%31%29%16%15%30%49%* The Disarmament Demobilization Reintegration process is an applied strategy to successfully execute peacekeeping operations, and isgenerally carried out by all United Nations Peacekeeping Operations.3%5

Do you feel that justice has been served to all Ivorians after the2010/2011 post-election crisis?Don't know/Noresponse33%Yes18%No49%Why do you feel that is not the case?n 727Don't know/No responseToo many victims & it's impossibleto give them justiceThere are still criminals1%1%9%68%No compensation for victimsLack of fairness/Justice of thevictors21%6

Overall, would you say you approve or disapprove of the job being doneby each of the following institutions?ApproveDisapproveDon't know/No responseNational Truth and Reconciliation Commission37%38%26%Political parties38%38%24%The election commission41%26%Civil society organizations44%The courts45%United Nations Operation in Côte d'IvoireYour local governmentThe national he army64%28%8%Public media64%28%8%The police66%26%8%Traditional leadersThe national governmentThe office of the presidency72%74%77%17%11%18%8%14%9%7

Youth Lacking RepresentationInternational Republican Institute

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of youth”?Strongly agreeAgree38%DisagreeStrongly disagree24%TOTAL AGREE62%AGE18-2425-3536-4546-6060 Strongly Agree37%38%44%37%34%Agree24%24%22%24%25%Don't know/No response19%9%10%TOTAL DISAGREE28%TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE Disagree Strongly %11%58%31%25%6%9

Are you registered to vote?Don't know/Noresponse5%No25%Yes70%10

AgeReligion25%26%23%27%26%7%2%4%4%6%No formal schoolingRural schoolingPrimary schoolSecondary Female73%67%23%28%4%5%AkanKrouN. MandéS. 27%28%22%21%18%22%64%3%3%2%6%1%0%5%No (not looking)No (looking)Yes, part-timeYes, full-time70%62%77%75%26%35%20%19%5%3%3%6%Job 36-4546-6060 Yes45%77%75%81%86%Don'tknow4%5%6%4%1%EducationAre you registered to vote?11

Why are you not registered to vote?n 379Don't know/No responseNot enough time2%1%I don't believe the electoral process will be credible3%I have no interest in registering to vote4%I don't plan to vote4%I don't want to vote6%I don't have a voter ID cardI don't know how to register to voteI don't have any information on how/when/where to register43%7%30%12

Economic Concerns Prominent, Desire forDemocracy StrongerInternational Republican Institute

In your opinion, what is the single most important issue Côte d’Ivoire isfacing today?Don't know/No responsePrice increasesLand issuesJustice for past incidentsNational identityNational unityPeaceful nat'l election is heldState of democracyAgricultureEducationHealthNational reconciliationCorruptionSecurityPolitical conflictsEconomyPovertyCost of %Political14%Security/Law & Order8%2%2%2%4%2%5%8%11%11%19%29%14

Now thinking about the year ahead, do you think your personal economicsituation will improve, worsen or stay the same?ImproveWorsen65%Stay the sameDon't know/No response5%7%23%15

If you could only choose one or the other, which is more important toyou: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?Don't know/No response7%Prosperity is definitely more important to me22%Prosperity is somewhat more important to meDemocracy is somewhat more important to me8%4%Democracy is definitely more important to meTOTAL DEMOCRACY63%59%TOTAL PROSPERITY30%16

More Support for DemocraticGovernance NeededInternational Republican Institute

In your opinion, how likely is it that you are able to talk to your memberof parliament about an important issue?Very likelySomewhat likely13%16%Not likely24%Not at all likelyDon't know/No response38%9%TOTAL LIKELY TOTAL UNLIKELY29%62%18

In your opinion, what is the role of political parties in Côte d’Ivoire?50%Don't know/No responseNothing, they divide IvoriansGain powerThey must contribute to the development of the countryCriticize gov't to enlighten the peopleThey must promote peace and social cohesion3%5%11%10%22%19

IndicatorsInternational Republican Institute

Overall, do you think Côte d’Ivoire is headed in the right directionor wrong direction?Don’t know/No response8%Wrong Direction26%Right Direction66%21

Why do you say right direction?(multiple choices allowed)n 1,113Access to quality educationMedia freedomAccess to quality healthcareAccess to landMore jobsWage increasesLess political violenceAccess to household commoditiesImproved securityRule of lawSuccess in national reconciliationSuccessful disarmamentdemobilization reintegration processGood business environmentGender equalityGood political leadershipNational unityIncreased government accountabilityLess corruptionImproved 4%1%18%TOTALSEconomic31%Political22%Security/Law & Order27%Why do you say wrong direction?(multiple choices allowed)n 387High cost of livingLack of suitable housingPersonal financial situationLack of jobsIncrease in corruptionLack of rule of lawDecreasing quality of educationLack of democratic progressGender inequalityDepression in business sectorLack of national unityLack of disarmament demobilizationreintegration progressLack of national reconciliationDecline in security situationIncrease in political violenceLack of press freedomLow wagesLack of quality healthcareToo many injusticesIncreasing 9%12%7%1%4%6%3%9%6%3%2%2%3%1%1%Security/Law & Order30%22

Overall, how would you rate the national economy of Côte d’Ivoire?Very bad12%Somewhat badSomewhat good22%Very good43%TOTAL BAD34%Don't know/No response11%13%TOTAL GOOD54%23

Overall, how would you rate the security situation of Côte d’Ivoire?Very bad15%Somewhat badSomewhat good19%Very good47%TOTAL BAD34%Don't know/No response15%3%TOTAL GOOD62%24

Overall, how would you rate the political stability of Côte d’Ivoire?Very unstable11%Somewhat unstable19%Somewhat stableVery stable45%Don't know/No response13%12%TOTAL UNSTABLE TOTAL STABLE30%58%25

Over the past year, would you say that your personal economic situationhas improved, worsened or stayed the same?Improved31%WorsenedStayed the same33%Don't know/No response35%2%26

How willing are you to live through some economic sacrifices today (for example,higher prices) if it leads to future improvements in the quality of your life?Strongly willingSomewhat willingSomewhat unwilling50%Strongly unwilling19%TOTAL WILLING69%11%Don't know/No response11%9%TOTAL UNWILLING22%27

For how long are you willing to sacrifice before you expect to see a longterm economic benefit?n 1,035Don't know/No response19%No more than 5 yearsNo more than 4 years14%4%67%No more than 3 years63%No more than 2 years8%17%55%No more than 1 year38%28

IssuesInternational Republican Institute

To what extent do you think that corruption is a problem inCôte d’Ivoire?Very serious problemSomewhat a problem79%Not a problem at allDon't know/No response10%9%2%30

Approval RatingsInternational Republican Institute

When it comes to fighting corruption, how would you rate the job thenational government is doing?Very goodSomewhat good36%Somewhat badVery bad27%14%TOTAL GOOD63%TOTAL BAD23%Don't know/No response9%14%32

Democracy & Political ParticipationInternational Republican Institute

Overall, would you say Ivorians have a civic responsibility to participatein any of the following?Yes, definitelyJoin the militaryMaybeNo, not at all40%15%Contribute to reconciliation process26%12%65%Join a political party18%51%Be informed19%22%83%Register to vote84%73%7%10%12%35%5%18%74%VotePay taxes19%76%Join a local community groupInfluence gov't decisionsDon't know/No response7%13%7%25%7%18%8%8%10%8%6% 4%5% 3%9%34

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:“Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in Côte d’Ivoire.”Strongly agree34%AgreeDisagreeStrongly disagree26%15%Don't know/No response10%16%TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE60%25%35

Do you feel free to express your political opinions in public?Don't know/No response12%Yes,definitely44%No, not at all28%Why do you not feel free to expressyour political opinions in public?n 412No opportunity to do so3%To avoid arguments20%Lack of democracy12%59%Fear of possible reprisalsI don't participate in politicsSomewhat16%6%36

Women & Youth in LeadershipInternational Republican Institute

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women”?Strongly agreeAgreeDisagree34%21%TOTAL AGREE55%GENDER Strongly AgreeMaleFemale32%36%Strongly disagreeAgree20%23%Don't know/No response23%10%TOTAL DISAGREE33%TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE Disagree52%58%12%37%29%25%20%StronglyDisagreeDon't know/Noresponse11%9%12%13%38

If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly thesame aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, whichcandidate would you prefer?ManWomanIt does not make a difference to me39%Don't know/No response26%32%3%GENDERMaleFemalePrefer ManPrefer WomanNo Difference46%31%18%36%34%31%Don't know/No response3%2%39

If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly thesame aside from the fact that one is a youth and one is not, whichcandidate would you prefer?YouthOlderIt does not make a difference to me37%30%Don't know/No response30%2%AGEYouthOlderNo DifferenceDon't know/No response18-2425-3536-4546-6060 %2%4%40

Security, Disarmament,Demobilization and Reintegration& National ReconciliationInternational Republican Institute

In general, do you feel safe in your daily life?Don't know/Noresponse6%No30%Yes64%Why do you not feel safe?(open-ended)n 453Security forces are not good/do notpatrolToo many foreignersWhy do you feel safe?(open-ended)n 95410%12%There is peace, the war is over12%1%Road Blocks/Assaut/Robbery/Rape57%Too many illegal weaponsChild abductionPeople can move freely14%Noticeable presence of security forces2%No problem, I go about my businessUnfinished disarmament28%16%50%42

Who is primarily responsible for the security of Côte d’Ivoire?Don't know/No responseUnited Nations Operation in Côte d'Ivoire4% 1%Local authorities1%The municipal police 1%The gendarmerie3%The national police17%The national armed forces11%The judiciary/Courts1%The national assembly1%The president62%43

Which of the following types of violence concerns you the most in yourdaily life?I am not concerned by any kind of violence59%Student violence 1%Violence by law enforcement officials1%Violence by the police or military1%Terrorism 1%Inter-ethnic violenceArmed militias (dozos)Violence against womenDomestic violenceLocal crime (robbery, theft, roadblocks)4%2%1%3%30%44

Do you feel the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration processis making progress?Yes, definitely43%SomewhatNot at all14%Don't know/No response16%27%45

In your opinion, who is primarily responsible for leadingreconciliation in the country?Don't know/No responseThis is the concern of all IvoriansLaurent GbagboTraditional leaders/AuthoritiesCivil society organizationsNational Truth and Reconciliation CommissionUnited Nations Operation in Côte d'IvoireMy local governmentThe national governmentThe Ivorian public mediaPolitical partiesThe independent election commissionThe policeThe armyThe judiciary/CourtsThe national assemblyThe office of the presidency3%8% 1%1%1%3%2%1%4% 1%5% 1%1%1%2%2%68%46

Right now, what is the most important thing to bring aboutnational reconciliation?(open-ended)Don't know/No responseComplete disarmamentFair trialsJustice/Compensation for victimsSettle land disputes10%2%4%5% 1%Create jobs for youth8%Release of political prisoners including GbagboConsider the opinion of oppositionMutual forgiveness, dialogue12%2%57%47

Voting & Political PartiesInternational Republican Institute

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next election?Probably willnot vote12%Don’tknow/Noresponse12%Might vote12%Will definitelyvote64%49

For what reason would you not vote?(of those responding no or don't know/no response)n 447Don't know/No responseI moved6%3%I am not on the voter registry10%There is a lack of information on the candidates5%I am not interested in voting8%I do not have a voter identification card26%I feel personally insecure/Unsafe to voteThe independent electoral commission lacks credibility5%2%The election process won't be credibleMy voice won't be heardElected officials don't honor their promisesThere is no candidate from my party running in the election9%3%9%14%50

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next 0 Will definitely vote64%65%65%67%63%65%55%62%68%75%80%Might vote12%11%12%10%13%12%13%14%12%7%7%Probably will not vote14%10%12%11%12%12%14%13%10%11%7%Don't know/No response10%14%12%12%18%11%11%8%6%51

For what reason would you not vote?(of those responding no or don't know/no response)n 447No candidate Elected officialsfrom my partydon’t honoris runningpromisesMy voicewon’t beheardThe election The ElectionI feelI don't haveNotLack ofI am not onDon'twon’t beCommission insecure/unsafe a voter ID interested in information the voter I movedknowcredibleisn’t credibleto votecardvotingon candidates -4546-6060 %3%16%6%4%4%8%6%2%8%6%3%13%52

Do you feel that the 2015 national election will be peaceful?Don't 12%9%Don't know/No 3536-4546-6060 62%64%63%61%73%12%11%13%10%5%26%26%24%30%22%53

If the election was held tomorrow, would you feel safe enough to go vote?Don't know/Noresponse21%No16%Yes63%Why wouldn’t you feel safe to go vote?(of those responding no ordon't know/no response)n 561Don't know/No response3%Political tensionsLack of cohesion in the armyIneffective disarmamentThe bad memories of 201050%4%15%28%54

If the election was held tomorrow, would you feel safe enoughto go vote?Location, Gender and Age Cross TabsYesNoUrbanRural61%64%19%15%Don't 8-2425-3536-4546-6060 56%61%63%70%78%18%17%18%13%12%26%22%19%18%11%55

Why wouldn’t you feel safe to go vote?(of those responding no or don't know/no response)n 561The bad memories Ineffective disarmament Lack of cohesion inof 2010the armyPolitical tensionsDon't 4546-6060 4%5%8%56

In general, how satisfied are you with the political parties inCôte d’Ivoire?Very satisfied14%Somewhat satisfied30%Somewhat unsatisfied18%Very unsatisfied18%Don't know/No response22%TOTAL SATISFIED TOTAL UNSATISFIED44%36%57

How important do you think the participation of opposition partiesis in determining the future of the country?Very importantSomewhat important57%Not very importantNot at all important16%Don't know/No response6%3%18%TOTAL IMPORTANT TOTAL UNIMPORTANT73%9%58

Ethnicity & CitizenshipInternational Republican Institute

Are ethnic issues important to you?Don’t know/Noresponse8%Yes37%No55%60

In your opinion, will ethnicity influence the 2015 national election?Don’t know/Noresponse20%Yes30%No50%In what way do you think ethnicity willinfluence the national election?(of those saying yes)n 457It will result in an election boycott1%It will cause electoral disputes15%Everyone will vote for a candidate fromtheir ethnic group56%Each ethnic group is linked to a politicalpartyDon't know/No response24%4%61

MediaInternational Republican Institute

In general, do you believe the Ivorian public media reportspolitical news objectively?Don’t 43%30%Don't know/No 3536-4546-6060 51%45%48%42%55%32%41%35%36%26%17%14%17%21%20%63

What is your main source for political news?Don't know/No responseLocal chiefsReligious leaders3%2%1%Friends, family, or neighborsThe InternetNewspapersRadioTelevision8%3%7%21%57%64

International Republican Institute(202) 408-9450 [email protected] @IRIGlobal65

Jun 25, 2015 · The survey is a national representative sample of adult residents of Côte d’Ivoire. The sample was . Catholic 26.7% Less than 100,000 F CFA 33.9% Traditional 5.3% 100,001 - 200,000 F CFA 7.9% Protestant 22.9% 200,001 - 300,000 F CFA 3.7% . No co